As late as the third week in January, Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race included only two high-profile candidates: Gov. Tony Evers and former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch. There were others who were considering getting into the race, but Evers and Kleefisch were the “big two.”

In February, things changed. Two more Republican candidates entered the race, guaranteeing a high-spirited and expensive Republican primary election. And both Republican candidates took direct aim at the front-runner, Kleefisch, for different reasons. Kevin Nicholson has signaled his intention to run as the Republican “outsider” candidate, while Timothy Ramthun is running to “decertify” the election results from the 2020 presidential election in Wisconsin.

The Republican primary election is probably helpful to Evers. He can continue to organize, raise money and tell his side of the story while the three Republicans take aim at each other instead of Evers. But primary elections can also be beneficial to the winner. A candidate who navigates and wins a hotly contested primary is often a better candidate in the general election. Only time will tell how the Republican candidate who survives the August primary fares in the November election.

Here’s a look at the race for Wisconsin governor with several months to go until election day on November 8.

Three Republican candidates, three political lanes

The 2022 gubernatorial race in Wisconsin features three Republican candidates in three distinct political lanes:

• Former Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Kleefisch (2011-2019): Kleefisch served as lieutenant governor for eight years under former Gov. Scott Walker. She’s running as the best known, “conservative establishment” choice.
• Businessman Kevin Nicholson: Currently running as the “anti-establishment outsider” candidate, Nicholson ran for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin in 2018, but was defeated by state Sen. Leah Vukmir in the U.S. Senate primary to take on Sen. Tammy Baldwin.
• State Rep. Timothy Ramthun (R-Campbellsport): A two-term member of the Wisconsin Assembly, Ramthun has called for Wisconsin lawmakers to “decertify” the Wisconsin presidential election results and is generally viewed as running in the “conspiracy theorist,” pro-Trump lane.

What all three candidates have in common is their conservative governing philosophy. All three candidates support lower taxes, less regulation, expanded school choice in Wisconsin and Second Amendment gun rights. Where they tend to differentiate themselves is the GOP “lane” they have chosen.

Kleefisch: Having served as lieutenant governor for eight years under former Gov. Scott Walker, Kleefisch is running on the Walker-Kleefisch record that includes billions in property and income tax cuts, significant reform to collective bargaining for most public employees, passage of a law that made Wisconsin a “right-to-work” state, and the passage of a law making Wisconsin a concealed carry state for gun owners. 

These and other laws passed during the Walker-Kleefisch years will allow Kleefisch to run on a record of significant conservative policy reform when Republicans controlled the governor’s office and both houses of the Wisconsin Legislature. In addition, prior to formally entering the race for governor, Kleefisch released her “forward agenda” detailing her legislative policy priorities if she is elected in November.

Nicholson: As the “anti-establishment outsider” candidate, Nicholson is running an insurgent campaign against the “machine” of Wisconsin Republican politics. When Nicholson entered the race in February, he blasted Republican leaders and Rebecca Kleefisch as the “tired political class” who lack “vision, ability and will” and “lost 11 out of 12 races” for statewide office in Wisconsin.

Once again, Nicholson has the full financial support of GOP megadonor Richard Uihlein, just like he had in his 2018 race for U.S. Senate. Uihlein spent more than $11 million on Nicholson’s behalf four years ago and has pledged to spend lavishly on Nicholson again this year. “If he decides to run for governor, he will have my full support and commitment to win the primary and general election,” said Uihlein in a statement published by Wispolitics.com.

Nicholson is also the volunteer president of “No Better Friend,” a conservative 501(c)(4) organization whose mission is “to implement and advocate for solutions to the problems we all face together, while also proactively reaching out and bringing new voices into the conservative movement.”

Ramthun: Rep. Ramthun entered the race for governor in February as the only candidate who would “call for an independent full forensic physical cyber audit for the November 2020 election.” Ramthun has repeatedly called on the legislature to “decertify” the Wisconsin 2020 presidential election results, despite there being no legal process to do so, according to attorneys inside and outside the Capitol. Decertifying the last presidential election is a big defining issue for many pro-Trump supporters.

Ramthun’s call to overturn the results of the Wisconsin presidential election is, at least so far, the single focus of his campaign. When he announced his entry into the race, he was introduced and endorsed by My Pillow founder and CEO Mike Lindell. Lindell has been an outspoken advocate for decertifying the results of President Biden’s victory in several closely contested swing states, including Wisconsin.

Incumbent Tony Evers

As the Democratic incumbent running for reelection in 2022, Evers has a few advantages that incumbents generally enjoy, including:

• Name identification: As governor for more than three years, Evers has close to 100% name identification. Voters have had plenty of time to evaluate his performance in office, his ideas, and his ability to get his agenda passed. The three Republican candidates will have to work hard and spend lots of money to become as well known as the current governor.
• Money: Evers raised $10 million in 2021 and had $10.5 million in the bank as of January. According to his campaign, Evers raised the most of any incumbent governor the year before the election. By contrast, Republican frontrunner Kleefisch raised $3.3 million in the last four months of 2021, one of the largest initial finance reports by a gubernatorial challenger in Wisconsin history. Both Evers and Kleefisch are proof of just how competitive this race will be, but the Evers fundraising numbers are historically high for any candidate running for governor in Wisconsin.
• No primary: Evers has no primary opposition. He can continue to raise money and get his campaign ready for the fall general election. His three Republican opponents will have to spend their money early to win the August primary election.

Because Nicholson and Ramthun entered the race in February, there are no finance reports available until July.

Marquette Law School Poll

As we have noted before, the Marquette Law School Poll is the best nonpartisan poll in Wisconsin politics. Here are a few numbers from the poll conducted February 22-27, 2022:

Joe Biden job approval in Wisconsin

• 43% approve
• 52% disapprove
• 3% don’t know

Tony Evers job approval in Wisconsin

• 50% approve
• 41% disapprove

Wisconsin Legislature job approval in Wisconsin

• 37% approve
• 46% disapprove
• 16% don’t know

Direction of the state

• 39% right direction
• 53% wrong direction

Vote choice in Republican gubernatorial primary

• 30% Rebecca Kleefisch
• 8% Kevin Nicholson
• 5% Tim Ramthun