The elections of 2004 are already underway. The Presidential
Primary was held on February 17 and U.S. Senator John Kerry held on
for a narrow win in Wisconsin. Candidates at the national, state
and local level are all working to set up their campaign
organizations and raise money to fund their campaigns.
We won’t know exactly how the political landscape will
look until July 13, when nomination papers are due at the state
Elections Board and all candidates have stated their intention to
run, walk or retire.
We can, however, take a look at some of the developments so far
in 2004 as we move closer to November 2.
Wisconsin a Key State for Bush and Kerry
If you like up-close and personal presidential politics,
you’re going to love Wisconsin this year. Badger State voters
will see lots of George W. Bush and John Kerry because Wisconsin is
a key state for both campaigns in the November 2 election.
In the 2000 presidential election, Gore carried Wisconsin by
5,708 votes over Bush, or two-tenths of one percentage point. This
ranked Wisconsin as the third most competitive state four years
ago.
Presidential election experts and campaign strategists on both
sides include Wisconsin in a group of 11 battleground states that
may well decide the outcome in the November election. These were
states where the outcome in 2000 was either close or very close:
Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon,
Wisconsin, West Virginia, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania.
Combined, these states total 127 electoral votes of the necessary
270 to win the presidency. Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes, down
from 11 in 2000.
Southwest Wisconsin
Voters in the southwest corner of Wisconsin will participate in
some of the most hotly contested races from the presidential
contest down to State Assembly.
Democrat and Republican strategists alike have their sights set
on a 10-county area where voters show a willingness to vote for
either side depending on the political environment and issue
agenda. Counties include Crawford, Grant, Iowa, Juneau, LaCrosse,
Lafayette, Monroe, Richland, Sauk and Vernon.
The last Republican to carry these 10 counties at the
presidential level was George H.W. Bush in 1988, with 51 percent of
the vote. In 1992, Bush "41" slid to 35 percent; Bob Dole received
35 percent in 1996; and George W. Bush garnered 45 percent in the
2000 election.
In addition to the extra emphasis on southwest Wisconsin at the
presidential level, there will be other races that generate higher
turnout.
U.S. Senator Russ Feingold will face re-election against one of
four candidates running in the GOP primary: car dealer Russ Darrow,
Attorney Robert Lorge, businessman Tim Michaels, and State Senator
Bob Welch. If historic voting patterns are any guide, voters in the
southwestern corner of Wisconsin are split rather evenly on
Feingold. In 1992, Feingold carried the 10-county area 52 percent
to 48 percent over incumbent Republican Bob Kasten; in 1998,
Feingold narrowly edged Republican Mark Neumann 51 percent to 49
percent.
For the first time since his election to the House of
Representatives in 1996, Democratic Congressman Ron Kind from
LaCrosse will face a potentially stiff challenge from Republican
state Senator Dale Schultz of Richland Center.
Kind has sailed to easy victories since his win over Jim
Harsdorf eight years ago. With a reasonably well-financed campaign
by Schultz, and election activity up and down the ballot in this
corner of the state, Kind will have to engage with a seasoned
opponent with 20 years of experience.
Southwest Wisconsin will also have to replace retiring
Democratic State Senator Mark Meyer from LaCrosse and Republican
Assemblyman DuWayne Johnsrud of Eastman. Meyer and Johnsrud
announced their retirements in February and March of this year.
This 10-county corner of southwest Wisconsin will be a challenge
to both parties. In this part of the state, Democrats have carried
the top-of-the-ticket while Republicans have been stronger at the
state and local level. This is classic "swing" territory.
State Senate
Five potentially competitive State Senate races will highlight
the 2004 elections. Senate District 32, in southwest Wisconsin due
to the retirement of Democrat Mark Meyer; Senate District 22, the
Kenosha based seat held by Democratic State Senator Bob Wirch;
Senate District 30, a Green Bay-Oconto-Marinette seat held by
Democratic State Senator Dave Hansen; Senate District 12, a large
northern Wisconsin district that stretches from Shawano county in
the South to Vilas County going north. The seat is held by Veteran
Democratic State Senator Roger Breske; and Senate District 10, a
St. Croix-Burnette County district in Western Wisconsin held by
Republican State Senator Sheila Harsdorf of River Falls.
Election watchers from both sides believe these five districts
are competitive and may very well decide the make-up of the State
Senate next January.