National political prognosticators have placed freshman U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson high on the “vulnerable” list for re-election in 2016. In fact, one of those prognosticators, Chris Cillizza of The Washington Post political blog “The Fix,” said in 2014: “Sen. Ron Johnson starts the 2016 election cycle as the most vulnerable senator on the map. He’s undefined in the eyes of many, polling shows; and he’s running in a state that has gone Democratic in seven straight presidential elections. To boot, there are rumors that Democrat Russ Feingold, who Johnson unseated in 2010, may run. Feingold starts with high name recognition and a loyal liberal following.” 

If Russ Feingold enters the race in 2016, Ron Johnson could easily start as the underdog in this rematch. Why, you might ask, would a sitting U.S. Senator start out his re-election campaign as the underdog to the person he defeated in 2010? Political experts point to three primary reasons for Johnson’s challenge in next year’s U.S. Senate race: 

1. Feingold is a “top tier” candidate with strong name identification and a proven ability to raise money.
2. Johnson is still, after five years in office, undefined to about 30 percent of Wisconsin voters.
3. Presidential election cycles are better for Democrats than midterm elections. 

Let’s take a closer look.

2010 election results

Presidential election cycles favor the Democrats

Since 1948, in presidential election years where a U.S. Senate seat was on the ballot in Wisconsin, the Democrats maintained the advantage: eight wins for Democrats, three wins for the GOP. The only Republican U.S. Senate candidates to carry Wisconsin in presidential election years since World War II were Joe McCarthy in 1952, Alexander Wiley in 1956, and Bob Kasten in 1980. The most recent example of this trend was Tammy Baldwin’s win over former Gov. Tommy Thompson in 2012.

31 years is a long time

Democrats have carried Wisconsin in presidential elections seven times in a row. The last GOP presidential win in the Badger State was Ronald Reagan in 1984, 31 years ago. And as history shows, the party that carries the presidential race in Wisconsin is likely to win the U.S. Senate race, according to research by the Humphrey School of Public Affairs: “Wisconsin has voted for the same political party in (now) 15 of 17 cycles, dating back to the birth of popular vote contests in 1914.” If the Democrats carry Wisconsin in 2016, Johnson will be swimming upstream, just like all his GOP predecessors. 

Johnson is still somewhat undefined

Independent polling by the Marquette Law School continues to show that Johnson is not clearly defined by Wisconsin voters. In the last 2014 election year survey, released on October 29, poll director Charles Franklin tested Sen. Johnson’s and Russ Feingold’s “Favorable/Unfavorable” ratings. The result:

Feingold has spent five years out of office and his “favorables” are higher than Johnson’s. Recent polling by Public Policy Polling (PPP), a Democratic polling firm from North Carolina, has Feingold leading Johnson 50-41 percent. These numbers illustrate why prognosticators have Johnson on the “vulnerable” list for 2016.

Johnson’s race will be targeted by both sides

Assuming Feingold runs, Democrats and Republicans will both spend massive amounts of money to win this seat with the GOP Senate majority on the line. Republicans hold a 54-46 majority, so Democrats will need a net gain of five seats to take control of the Upper House.

Nationally, Republicans will be forced to defend 24 seats, Democrats just 10 in 2016. For the GOP, seven of 24 seats are in states President Obama carried in 2008 and 2012, including Wisconsin. Democrats will work hard to keep Wisconsin in the “lean Dem” category next year.

If Feingold runs, he will make political history

According to research from the Humphrey School of Public Affairs, “… a 2016 campaign would make him [Feingold] the first Wisconsin U.S. Senator to lose a seat in the direct election era [98 years] and attempt to get it back.” The Humphrey School research further notes that seven previous Wisconsin U.S. Senators lost in the last 98 years and decided against a comeback bid:

• Irvine Lenroot (1926)
• John Blaine (1930)
• F. Ryan Duffy (1938)
• Robert LaFollette (1946)
• Alexander Wiley (1962)
• Gaylord Nelson (1980)
• Bob Kasten (1992)

The bottom line: Ron Johnson is vulnerable in 2016. His vulnerability does not necessarily mean he’s going to lose, but the polling numbers and Wisconsin political trends certainly suggest that he has a very difficult re-election campaign ahead and a big blue target on his back. If Feingold enters the race, the 2016 U.S. Senate rematch will draw national attention and money.

Joe Murray is Director of Political and Governmental Affairs for the WRA.