In 2021, Disney released a wildly popular movie called Encanto. The film was a good watch, but the biggest thing that it produced was an earworm of a song that sat at the top of the charts for weeks on end. That song, “We Don’t Talk About Bruno,” seems to be an unintentional theme song for Wisconsin Republicans when it comes to U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin and the upcoming 2024 election.

Change the title to “We Don’t Talk About Tammy,” and that is exactly where the discussion currently lies on who will be facing the incumbent U.S. Senator in fall 2024 for what many see could be a seat that could determine control of the nation’s more deliberative legislative body.

The U.S. Senate currently sits with a 51 to 49 Democratic majority; three independent Senators caucus with the Democrats. This slim majority is seen by many pundits as under threat during a presidential election cycle with a sitting president who has an overall approval rating as low as President Joe Biden’s has been for the last year.  

When a presidential approval rating has been sitting at less than 50% for more than a year, members of the opposition party are salivating to run against members of the president’s party. President Biden’s approval rating has rarely pushed over 40% since June 2022, and yet Baldwin has not even garnered a serious candidate across the aisle with just 15 months until the election.

Why is that? Let’s dive in.

The quiet politician who gets things done

Baldwin began her career in public office in 1986 as a member of the Dane County Board of Supervisors. She served her community for eight years before moving on to serve for an additional six years in the state Assembly. After that tenure, she gave the voters of Madison and the surrounding area 14 years as the representative for Wisconsin’s second district in the U.S. House of Representatives. She was the first woman and first openly gay challenger elected to Congress in Wisconsin. In Congress, Baldwin was well known for her rational demeanor and ability to provide for the needs of her constituents in the predominantly liberal districts that she represented. She served on the Budget Committee, the Judiciary Committee, and the Energy and Commerce Committee. During her tenure, she was instrumental in battling for education accessibility and had a strong record of fighting against unfair trade deals that shipped American jobs overseas.

In 2012, she ran a brilliantly executed campaign for U.S. Senate against beloved former Gov. Tommy Thompson who was badly bruised from a bloody primary. While she did have some help at the top of the ticket with President Barack Obama and his strong reelection campaign, she outperformed her initial polling and won her election in stunning fashion by a more than 5-point margin over the four-time former governor.

She went on to an even larger electoral victory in 2018, winning her initial reelection to the U.S. Senate by 11 points against former Wisconsin Sen. Leah Vukmir. To be fair, this was the midterm for former President Donald Trump — who was fairly unpopular at the time — which provided a helpful boost for Democrats up and down the ballot nationwide. However, Baldwin performed much better than the national average for Democrats running during that midterm and has shown that she runs very well statewide in Wisconsin. 

There are a number of reasons for this. First, she has a long track record with the people of this state, and while there have been stumbles on some issues, she has dealt with them head-on and has been forthright with voters. Baldwin’s honesty and track record go a long way with voters in a state that has long memories. Second, she campaigns on issues that matter to voters. She speaks about the economy in a manner that other campaigning Democrats do not. She speaks plainly and brings a different approach to potentially solving issues that voters of all political affiliations can understand and may be able to get behind. Baldwin understands that to win votes in rural areas, one must speak about rural issues. Lastly, she shores up her base votes in strong Democratic counties. Baldwin runs up the tally in Dane and Milwaukee counties — the most populace, as well as the “bluest,” areas of the state. In doing so, she makes it harder for her opponents to come within reach by building insurmountable leads in a state where elections are generally won on the margins.

If you pair these methods with a great fundraising apparatus and a state party that has coffers to match, it is understandable that with just over a year until Election Day, not a single Republican candidate has officially thrown their name into the hat yet.

To put that into stark contrast, just over two years ago in the months leading up to the 2022 midterm elections, there were eight candidates in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate race against sitting Sen. Ron Johnson. 

This does not mean a serious Republican challenge against Baldwin may still be mounted, however, it does showcase that an uphill battle is underway against a tough incumbent who knows how to win a tight race in a swing state where top-of-the ticket races can be decided by less than a percentage point.

So, who could be running against Baldwin?

While no one has announced they are in the running yet, one potential candidate has officially told the world he will not run against Baldwin. Congressman Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay) announced in June that, despite pressure from national Republican voices and polling well against Baldwin, he will not be entering the race. He stated that he is laser-focused on his position within Congress as the chairman of the Select Committee on China and believes that he is better suited to serve Wisconsin and the nation in that role than if he were to run for U.S. Senate.

Now, let’s take a look at the potential candidates who may be on the ballot in November 2024.

Scott Mayer

Mayer is a businessman and longtime Republican contributor from Franklin, Wisconsin. Mayer serves on the board for Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce as well as the Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce. He started the staffing and recruitment company QPS Employment Group in 1985. He would be able to invest $10 to $15 million of his own wealth into the race.

Eric Hovde

Hovde is a businessman and real estate developer from Madison. Hovde founded and managed a number of financial institutions and served on the board of more than a dozen banking companies. He serves on a foundation started by himself and his brother that focuses on assisting disadvantaged children. He ran for U.S. Senate once before in 2012 and would be able to provide his campaign with initial startup funding.

David Clark

Clarke is a former sheriff of Milwaukee County, conservative advocate and outspoken podcaster. The self-proclaimed “rock-solid conservative” ran for sheriff four times in Milwaukee County as a democrat and won. He resigned before a fifth run in 2017 and was a staunch supporter of former President Trump. He would be an outsider’s candidate but would add a dramatic flair to the race that no other candidate would be able to match.

Rep. Tom Tiffany

Congressman and small business owner Tiffany represents Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional district after joining the House of Representatives in 2020 by a special election to replace retiring Rep. Sean Duffy. Rep. Tiffany served Wisconsin in the state Assembly from 2011 to 2013 and the state Senate from 2013 to 2020. He won his Congressional district by wide margins in all three of his general elections and would pose the most formidable challenge of the current slate of candidates for the U.S. Senate race. He has mentioned to the press that he will make a decision about entering this race by the end of the summer.  

Conclusion

Regardless of who enters the race against Baldwin, Wisconsin will be the center of the political universe once again in 2024. As the deepest of purple states with a divided electorate, there is no doubt that an unprecedented amount of money will be spent on the U.S. Senate race in this highly visible swing state. While Republicans may not want to “talk about Tammy” right now, we will definitely be hearing a lot about Tammy in the year to come.