Upcoming Elections: What to Watch


 Joe Murray  |    February 05, 2015
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WRA Backs Stroebel for Senate 

The REALTORS® Political Action Committee (RPAC) trustees are proudly supporting former state Rep. Duey Stroebel for senate in the 20th State Senate District special election. The primary election will be held February 17 and general election will be held April 7.
Stroebel is one of three GOP candidates running in the primary, and no Democratic candidate entered the race. The winner of the February 17 primary election will replace Glenn Grothman, who was elected to the U.S. House in last November’s election. Stroebel’s primary opponents are Tiffany Koehler of Slinger and Ozaukee County Board Chairman Lee Schlenvogt from the Town of Port.

The vote to endorse Stroebel was unanimous for two significant reasons: Stroebel maintained a perfect 100 percent record on WRA issues during his two terms in the Wisconsin Assembly, and Stroebel is a longtime member of the Ozaukee REALTORS® Association.

During the last legislative session, Stroebel supported the real estate industry through his advocacy for major property tax cuts, regulation of out-of-state licensees and landlord/tenant law reform. His understanding of the real estate industry and advocacy for homeowners and property owners was invaluable to the WRA.

For those members who live and vote in the 20th State Senate District, we urge you to mark your calendar and vote for REALTOR® Duey Stroebel in the February 17 primary election. Your vote will be critical in a low-turnout primary election.

State Supreme Court: Bradley vs. Daley

The April 7 spring election will feature a statewide contest for Wisconsin Supreme Court between incumbent Justice Ann Walsh Bradley and challenger James Daley, a Rock County Circuit Court Judge. Bradley is considered a more liberal justice, while Daley has support from conservatives.

The WRA board of directors, along with the Political Strategy Group (PSG) and RPAC trustees, will review these two candidates and likely make a recommendation to WRA members in March. The internal review process requires the PSG and RPAC trustees to examine the candidates’ records and positions on real estate issues and make a recommendation to the WRA board of directors. Once the board votes, the endorsement decision is announced to all members.

The 2015 Supreme Court race has generated very little attention so far, but that will change as we move past the February 17 primary election and closer to April 7. Watch for more information on this important election over the next two months.

Ron Johnson and 2016

“He is arguably the Senate’s most vulnerable incumbent in the 2016 election. He is certainly at the top of the Democrats’ national target list.” — Milwaukee Journal Sentinel political reporter Craig Gilbert.

“I’m not saying it’s not a legitimate ranking. It’s going to be a challenge.” — U.S. Senator Ron Johnson.

GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is up for re-election in 2016, and most political prognosticators view Johnson’s prospects for success as a real challenge. There are several reasons handicappers believe Johnson is vulnerable, but one political and historical fact stands out: History shows that the party that carries the presidential race in Wisconsin in 2016 is very likely to win the U.S. Senate race as well. 

According to research from the Humphrey School of Public Affairs, “Wisconsin has voted for the same political party in (now) 15 of 17 cycles, dating back to the birth of popular vote contests in 1914.” Translation: If the Democratic presidential nominee carries Wisconsin in 2016, Johnson has a steeper uphill climb in his re-election bid. Democrats have carried Wisconsin in presidential elections seven times in a row between 1988 and 2012. In presidential elections, Wisconsin is considered a “swing” state by some and a “blue” state by others.

The two elections in 100 years where Wisconsin voters rendered a split decision were 1940 (Roosevelt and La Follette), and 1968 (Nixon and Nelson).

History doesn’t always repeat, but it’s difficult to ignore political trends that span 100 years.

Joe Murray is Director of Political and Governmental Affairs for the WRA.

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