Wisconsin will be a true battleground state for both Democrats and Republicans in the 2022 midterm elections:

• At the top of the ticket, Wisconsin voters will decide whether to reelect or replace U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson, Democrat Gov. Tony Evers and Attorney General Josh Kaul.
• At the congressional level, both parties will fight to win the open seat race in Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District.
• Both incumbents and challengers for state legislative and congressional seats will be running in new districts after the Wisconsin Supreme Court hands down its decision on which set of maps lawmakers will have to run in.

As most political scientists or prognosticators note, midterm elections are a referendum on the party of the White House, and that means a referendum on the Biden presidency. With 10 months before the November elections, things could change. If the current political trends hold, however, the November 8 elections could strongly favor Republicans.

Here are four political developments to watch as we enter the election year of 2022.

Biden job approval trends

If you follow national politics, you are probably aware that President Biden has a low “job approval” number. Currently, his national job approval stands at 43% approve and 54% disapprove. Wisconsin’s numbers are virtually identical to the national numbers: 43% approve, 53% disapprove and 4% unsure, according to a November 2021 Marquette Law School poll. 

Biden’s low job approval numbers are unlikely to help Gov. Evers in his bid for reelection in November. In that November 2021 Marquette Law School poll, Evers’ job approval ratings stood at 45% approve and 46% disapprove. In August 2021, Evers’ job approval stood at 50% approve and 43% disapprove. 

For incumbents running for reelection, their job approval numbers are one of the most important metrics to watch. If voters give the incumbent low numbers on their overall performance in office, it’s a clear signal that their path to reelection will be very difficult. The Marquette survey had more bad news for the governor: only 40% of poll respondents said they would vote to reelect Gov. Evers, 53% would vote for someone else and 6% didn’t know. In 2018, Evers had the political wind at his back, but it’s in his face in 2022.

3rd Congressional District race

U.S. Rep. Ron Kind (D-WI), Wisconsin’s longest-serving member of Congress, announced last August that he would retire from his seat in Western Wisconsin at the end of his term. Kind was first elected in 1996 and will have served for 26 years when he retires at the end of his 13th term.

So far, there are five Democratic candidates and one Republican candidate who have announced their campaign for this district, making it the most competitive House seat in Wisconsin. Accordingly, this district is expected to be among the most-watched and expensive congressional races in the country.

The five announced Democrats include Rebecca Cooke of Eau Claire, Brett Knudsen of Holmen, Mark Neuman of La Crosse, Deb McGrath of Menomonie and Brad Pfaff of Onalaska. The lone Republican is Derrick Van Orden, who narrowly lost to Kind in 2020, 51% to 49%. Of the eight congressional districts in Wisconsin, the 3rd congressional seat is the most — and perhaps only — competitive district this year.

Ron Johnson runs again

When he ran for reelection in 2016, Johnson said he would serve only two terms and retire. But he recently reversed his position and announced that he will run for a third six-year term.

After Johnson’s announcement, it didn’t take long for the opposition to jump on his decision. Ben Wikler, chair of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, was quoted by AP News stating that Wisconsin voters will “relish the opportunity to fire Johnson.” Wikler went on to predict that “Johnson’s relentless attacks on working families, health care, and the bedrock principles of American democracy disqualify him from a third term, and his presence on the ballot will ensure that voters turn out in record numbers to defeat Republicans at every level” in a statement. 

Because Democrats believe Johnson is one of the most vulnerable members of the U.S. Senate, seven have entered the race vying to be the party’s Senate candidate in 2022. The three major national political prognosticators, however, see the 2022 Senate race in Wisconsin a little differently: The Cook Political Report predicts a “toss-up,” while both Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections predict “lean R.”

In a campaign video released after his announcement, Johnson explained his primary reason for running for a third term: “It feels like our country is being torn apart. That’s not how it felt when I ran in 2016. Back then, I intended to serve a second term and go home. But now with Democrats in total control, our nation is on a very dangerous path. If you were in a position to help make our country safer and stronger, would you just walk away? I’ve decided I can’t. I’ll stand and fight for freedom.”

The Wisconsin U.S. Senate race will surely be competitive, but the current political environment favors Johnson in 2022. And Johnson has been underestimated before: he was widely expected to lose in 2016, but he defeated former Sen. Russ Feingold in their rematch that year.

The maps below show the current Wisconsin Senate and Assembly districts. Highlighted districts include open seats for the 2022 midterm election.

Legislative retirements

To date, six state Representatives and two state Senators have announced they won’t seek reelection in 2022. They include:

• Republican Rep. Jim Steineke (AD 5)
• Republican Rep. Gary Tauchen (AD 6)
• Republican Rep. Amy Loudenbeck (AD 31)
• Republican Rep. Jeremy Thiesfeldt (AD 52)
• Democrat Rep. Beth Meyers (AD 74)
• Democrat Rep. Dianne Hesselbein (AD 79)
• Republican Sen. Kathy Bernier (SD 23)
• Democrat Sen. Jon Erpenbach (SD 27)

Once the new district maps are approved by the Wisconsin Supreme Court, more retirements may be announced as the current legislative session ends in March 2022. Watch for more in future issues of Wisconsin Real Estate Magazine.

Joe Murray is Director of Political and Governmental Affairs for the WRA.