In December 2023, the Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled 4-3 that Wisconsin’s legislative maps violate the state constitution and must be redrawn in time for the 2024 election. On February 19, 2024, Gov. Tony Evers signed new maps into law.

The new legislative maps represent a serious break in Wisconsin Republicans’ grip on legislative power and give minority party Democrats the chance to win additional seats for the first time in 13 years. Democrats could, in fact, win a majority in the Senate over the next two election cycles. Here’s a brief overview of the most competitive Senate elections in 2024.

Republicans now have a 22-11 supermajority in the Senate. While the new legislative maps give Senate Democrats a chance to gain a majority, such a process would require two election cycles because the Wisconsin Constitution requires alternating elections of the 33 Senators, each serving four-year terms. Senators from even-numbered districts are elected one year, and Senators from odd-numbered districts two years later. The 16 even-numbered seats are on the ballot in 2024.

This year’s 16 Senate elections have both Democrats and Republicans gearing up for what could be the most expensive Senate elections ever. Of the 16 Senate seats on the ballot in 2024, six are safe Republican, five are safe Democratic, two are competitive but lean Democratic, and three are toss-ups. Let’s take a closer look at the three toss-up and two competitive leaning Democratic districts. These seats will be where most of the money will be spent this fall.

Senate District 8

This southeastern Wisconsin district is anchored by Port Washington in the north and Whitefish Bay in the south, and pits incumbent Duey Stroebel (R-Saukville) against Jodi Habush Sinykin (D-Milwaukee). The 8th Senate District is a highly competitive toss-up seat with a very slight Republican lean at 51%.

Senate District 14

Located in south-central Wisconsin, this district includes Wisconsin Dells in the north and reaches down into the city of Madison. This race has incumbent Joan Ballweg (R-Markesan) challenged by Sarah Keyeski of Lodi. The district is a very comparative toss-up with a slight Democratic lean at 52%.

Senate District 18

This seat is located in the heart of the Fox Valley and stretches from Appleton down to the city of Oshkosh. Under the new legislative maps, there is no incumbent running in this district. Democrat Kristin Alfheim of Appleton will face either Anthony Phillips or Blong Yang on the Republican side. Senate District 18 is a top pickup opportunity for Democrats and is rated as a lean Democrat seat at 54%.

Senate District 30

This district includes most of the city of Green Bay and surrounding suburbs. With no incumbent running in the seat, the race features two candidates from Green Bay: Democrat Jamie Wall and Republican Jim Rafter. The 30th Senate District is a highly competitive toss-up seat with a slight Democrat lean at 52%.

Senate District 32

Located in southwestern Wisconsin, this district includes La Crosse and Onalaska in the west, and Sparta and Viroqua in the east. This seat has incumbent Democrat Brad Pfaff (D-Onalaska) running against Republican challenger Stacey Klein from Trempealeau. Senate District 32 is a lean Democrat district at 53%.

These five state Senate seats are the true battleground districts in 2024. With 18 districts that voted for both Joe Biden and Tony Evers under the new legislative maps, Democrats do have a path to a majority for the first time in over a decade, but the opportunity to achieve that goal would take two election cycles to happen.