On June 1, all candidates running for congressional and state legislative seats were required to file their nomination papers with the Government Accountability Board in Madison. We now have a much clearer picture of how competitive, or in many cases how uncompetitive, Wisconsin elections will be in 2016.
Two political developments stand out. First, there are 10 districts where Democratic lawmakers will be challenged by fellow Democrats in primary elections on August 9. Second, 37 state Assembly incumbents are running with no opposition or only third-party opposition in November, and six state Senators are running unopposed in the “Upper House.”
Bottom line: there are 115 legislative districts up for election in 2016, and 43 incumbents, or 37 percent, have only token or no opposition. This means the bulk of campaign spending will take place in roughly 20 state legislative districts that are truly competitive and well financed by both sides.
Here’s a closer look at the political breakdown as it stands today heading into the August 9 primary and November 8 general elections.
Congressional primaries: Four of Wisconsin’s seven congressional incumbents face primary elections on August 9. Two are Democrats — Ron Kind and Gwen Moore — and two are Republicans — Paul Ryan and Sean Duffy. Political handicappers pick all four incumbents to win their primaries, perhaps by comfortable or even lopsided margins, with the challenge to Speaker of the House Paul Ryan generating the most interest and campaign spending. Speaker Ryan has more than just one Republican taking him on in the primary. Ryan faces a “Trump Conservative” candidate and a Libertarian challenger as well. Longtime incumbents facing primary elections are rare in Wisconsin.
State Senate primaries: There are 16 state Senate seats up for election in 2016. Eight are held by Democrats, eight by Republicans. Two state Senate incumbents generated a primary this cycle, and both are Democrats: Lena Taylor of Milwaukee and Minority Leader Jennifer Shilling of La Crosse. Shilling is expected to easily survive her primary, but Taylor faces a real challenge from state Rep. Mandela Barnes (D–Milwaukee) in her Milwaukee-based Senate seat.
State Senate free rides: Six of the 16 state Senators, or 38 percent, running for re-election or in the open seat in Senate District 28 are running unopposed. Three of the six are Democrats, three are Republicans. Democrat “free riders” include Sens. Mark Miller of Madison, Bob Wirch of Kenosha and Fred Risser of Madison. GOP free riders include Sens. Alberta Darling of Milwaukee, Duey Stroebel of West Bend and David Craig of Big Bend. All six seats have one feature in common: they are either safe Democrat or safe Republican districts, so both parties decided to skip the process of recruiting opposition candidates to run in districts unwinnable for the other side.
State Assembly Democrat primaries: Six Democrat state Assembly incumbents will be challenged by fellow Democrats in primaries on August 9. Four incumbents are from Milwaukee County, while two are from Dane County, both Democratic strongholds for their party. The four from Milwaukee County include Josh Zepnick, Leon Young, JoCasta Zamarripa and Christine Sinicki. The two Dane County Democrats are Lisa Subeck and Sondy Pope. There are no Republicans on the ballot in these six districts, so the winner of the primary will be sworn into office in January 2017.
Uncontested and noncompetitive districts: Every two years, all 99 Assembly seats are on the ballot in Wisconsin. In 2016, 37 Assembly incumbents, or almost 40 percent, have no opponent or, in six districts, only token third-party opponents. In short, these members have essentially been re-elected without opposition. Of the 37 seats, 17 are held by Democrats and 19 by Republicans. Why are there so many uncontested seats? The answer is simple: the vast majority of these districts are safe for their party. Even a strong opponent from the opposing party is likely going to lose, and lose big. Both sides decided it was not worth the time, money or effort to run against the incumbent unless they have a legitimate chance to win.
Open seats in 2016: There are 13 open seats in the state legislature in 2016. This is less than half the number from the 2014 midterm election cycle. Five seats are currently held by Democrats and six seats by Republicans. Four of the open 13 seats would fall into the “swing seat” category, meaning they will be hotly contested by both sides.
The WRA and local associations will interview candidates in all 13 open seats this summer. Our job is to meet these candidates, ask them questions on important real estate issues, and determine which candidates deserve REALTOR® support. Watch for more information this summer and fall.
Joe Murray is Director of Political and Governmental Affairs for the WRA.