In February, Wisconsin Rep. Reid Ribble (R-Wis.) announced his 2016 retirement after serving three terms in the U.S. House for the Fox Valley’s 8th Congressional District. Ribble was first elected in 2010, when he defeated two-term Congressman Steve Kagen (D-Wis.), 55 percent to 44 percent.

The scramble is on to replace Ribble, and the field of potential candidates includes more Republicans than Democrats in this “lean GOP” seat.

Potential Republican replacements include:

• State Sen. Frank Lasee of DePere, an 18-year veteran of the Wisconsin Legislature. Lasee entered the race in February
• Former Green Bay Packer Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, who is active in local GOP politics.
• Former state Rep. Chad Weininger, who served in the Assembly from 2011-14.
• State Rep. Dave Steffen, a first-term representative from Green Bay.
• Mike Gallagher, a Marine Corps veteran and former congressional staffer. Gallagher entered the race in February.

• Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson, a former state representative and the 2010 lieutenant governor nominee.
• Penny Bernard Schaber, who served in the Assembly from 2009-2014.

The political dynamic and history of the 8th Congressional District

Reid Ribble’s surprise retirement could easily set off a political shuffle in the 8th Congressional District in 2016, perhaps into 2017. Here are several factors to keep in mind as the race to succeed Ribble unfolds this year:

• Wisconsin’s 8th Congressional District can swing: David Wasserman follows U.S. House elections for The Cook Political Report, and he’s one of the leading political experts on congressional elections in the country. Regarding the open seat after Ribble’s announcement, Wasserman said, “Wisconsin’s 8th Congressional District includes Green Bay and Appleton and is home to one of the highest proportions of swing voters in the country. In 2008, it [8th Congressional District] voted for President Obama 54 percent to 45 percent, but in 2012, it voted for Mitt Romney 51 percent to 47 percent. At the congressional level, it has swung between the two parties four times in the last 20 years, most recently when Ribble unseated wealthy Democratic allergist Steve Kagen in 2010.” Wasserman views the 8th Congressional District as a potential problem for the GOP to hold if Republicans nominate what Wasserman calls a “polarizing presidential nominee” like Donald Trump or Ted Cruz.

• The GOP usually has the edge: The political history of the 8th Congressional District offers a clue as to why the GOP has the edge in this district. According to David Wegge, former Professor of Political Science at St. Norbert College in DePere, only six Democrats have ever been elected from this district. The six Democrats, along with their 8th Congressional District tenures, are:
  • Lyman E. Banes, 1892-94
  • James Hughes, 1932-34
  • LaVerne R. Dilweg, 1942-44
  • Father Robert J. Cornell, 1974-78
  • Jay Johnson, 1996-98
  • Steve Kagen, 2006-10
• Four of the six Democrats served only one term, while the other two served for two terms. So, while the Democrats have held this seat for six of the last 20 years, the long-term historical edge goes to the GOP.

• Top-of-the-ticket influence: Both Democrats and Republicans need a competitive political environment to win in the district. If “swing state” Wisconsin is competitive at the top of the ticket in the 2016 presidential election, it’s very possible the 8th Congressional District could be winnable for both sides with a slight advantage to the GOP. If Democrats are favored to carry Wisconsin by a comfortable margin, the GOP could find it difficult to hold this seat. Democrats have carried Wisconsin in presidential elections seven times in a row. The last Republican presidential candidate to carry Wisconsin was Ronald Reagan in 1984.

• Will an outsider enter the race? In 2010, roofing contractor Reid Ribble entered the GOP primary and defeated then-state Rep. Roger Roth in the primary and went on to defeat Democrat incumbent Steve Kagen in the general election. In 2006, allergist Steve Kagen defeated former Brown County Executive Nancy Nusbaum in the primary and former state Rep. John Gard in the general election. So far in 2016, five of the seven potential candidates are current or former officeholders. It remains to be seen if a significant and wealthy “outsider” candidate enters the race and uses their personal finances to jump-start a campaign.

• Potential special elections: If a current state legislator wins this seat in November, that will trigger a special election to fill his or her open legislative seat. This potential election would be held in early 2017.

In 2016, the open 8th Congressional District, along with the U.S. Senate race and the presidential election at the top of the ticket, means the Fox Valley will be perhaps the most coveted political territory in Wisconsin by Democrats and Republicans.

Joe Murray is Director of Political and Governmental Affairs for the WRA.