We’re getting old. No big revelation there, right? But the implications of that simple fact are not so simple, and are in fact, staggering.
The presidential campaign of late has focused on several important such implications, like the future solvency of our Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security systems. But our aging demographics will also have a significant consequence for our state and our industry. Consider the following projections. 

According to a recent study prepared for the state by the University of Wisconsin-Madison Applied Population Laboratory, our population in Wisconsin is expected to grow by 14 percent over the next 30 years, which is more than 800,000 people. However, there will be a dramatic shift in the age distribution over those years. In 2010, one in eight Wisconsin residents were over 65 years old. By 2040, almost one in four will be over age 65. 

To break that down even further, the percentage of 18-24 year olds will increase by 1.5 percent over the next 30 years. 25-44 year olds will increase by 3.2 percent. 45-64 year olds will actually decrease by 2.5 percent. But 65-84 year olds will increase by 91 percent, and our 85 and older population will soar by 142 percent! The study says this trend is almost solely due to the aging of our existing state residents and not due to any mass influx of retirees migrating to Wisconsin.

Feeling old yet?

The ramifications of this “graying” of Wisconsin will be significant. Think of the impact on state and local government services. Think of the impact on the medical and health care profession. Think of the geographic impact on various parts of the state between rural, urban and suburban communities and regions. Think of the impact on transportation patterns and needs; on our economy and jobs; on our primary and secondary education systems; on voting patterns and public policy priorities; and on and on and on. 

And think about the impacts on housing needs and demands. We could see people staying in their homes longer and thus impacting the “normal” cycle of sales and turnover. We could see less new housing construction. Conversely, we could see more construction of new communities that are more compact, higher density with more walkable retail and medical care outlets. We could see far less household formations and thus less overall demand for housing. If we continue to over-rely on the property tax to fund our schools, technical colleges, police and fire protection, road repairs, snow removal and garbage collection, how will older homeowners and renters on fixed income be able to stay in their homes or apartments? And if they can’t, what are the implications for our schools and local services? Moreover, as the federal government considers the possible reduction or elimination of the mortgage interest deduction, housing affordability will directly suffer — and along with it, our aging homeowners on fixed incomes.

Feeling old yet?

The share of Wisconsin population over 65 years old will increase from about 770,000 to 1.544 million, according to the UW-Madison study. The number of elderly Wisconsinites will exceed the number of children at some point during the second half of the 2020s. As we gray, these and many more issues will directly and indirectly impact the real estate industry and how we do our business. Are we ready for that discussion?