In a recent Milwaukee Journal Sentinel column, veteran political reporter Craig Gilbert hypothesized Wisconsin’s role in the 2024 elections: “What does seem certain is that Wisconsin will play the same leading role it has for most of the past 30 years: as an electoral prize, madly contested by both parties and, if the election is close enough, a potential decider.”
Gilbert is correct. Wisconsin has been and continues to be a highly competitive battleground state in presidential elections and other top-of-the-ticket races for U.S. Senate, governor and attorney general. With the 2024 presidential race already underway, political pundits expect Wisconsin to be center stage once again next year. With this in mind, here are four political dynamics to watch as the 2024 Wisconsin elections come into focus
New legislative district maps
On August 1, Wisconsin’s Supreme Court flipped from majority conservative control to majority liberal control for the first time in 15 years. Law Forward, a progressive Wisconsin law firm closely associated with Democrats, filed a legal challenge against the state’s current legislative district maps seeking new district maps before the 2024 election. State legislative maps were drawn by Republicans in 2011 and 2021.
If new maps are adopted in time for the 2024 Wisconsin elections, Democrats will have their best opportunity in 12 years to pick up state legislative seats in the November elections. Depending on how the lines are drawn, there could very well be more competitive and open legislative seats in 2024.
Today, there are 64 Republicans and 35 Democrats in the Wisconsin Assembly, and 22 Republicans and 11 Democrats in the Senate. These numbers could be significantly different after the November 2024 elections should the district maps be redrawn as the Democrats want.
U.S. Senate election spending
In 2016, Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson fought off a stiff challenge from former Sen. Russ Feingold, retaining his seat and setting a new record for election spending for U.S. Senate races in Wisconsin. Two years later, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin easily defeated Republican Leah Vukmir in a far less competitive U.S. Senate race, spending less money in the process.
U.S. Senate election spending
- 2016: Johnson (R) vs. Feingold (D) totaled $74,657,191
- 2018: Baldwin (D) vs. Vukmir (R) totaled $53,794,194
- 2022: Johnson (R) vs. Barnes (D) totaled $205,630,470
Source: Open Secrets
Fast forward to the 2022 midterm election in Wisconsin, a highly competitive showdown between incumbent Ron Johnson and former Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. Take note of the staggering amount of money spent in this contest, as shown in the chart above. The Johnson-Barnes election spending was far greater than the previous two statewide Senate elections combined.
The spending explosion in Wisconsin over the last few elections is incredible. And much of that spending explosion is driven by outside groups — typically “super PACs” associated with political party leaders and allied special interest groups. If Baldwin draws a top-tier GOP challenger in 2024, the 2022 spending record is likely to fall.
Wisconsin as a swing state
Wikipedia describes a swing state like this: “In American politics, the term swing state (also known as a battleground state, toss-up state or purple state) refers to any state that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican candidate in a statewide election, most often referring to presidential elections, by a swing in votes.”
Wisconsin has been a swing state in which voters waver between electing Democrats and Republicans since at least the mid-20th century. According to UW-Milwaukee history professor Jonathan Kasparek, “Republicans and Democrats began their intense competition in the state in the 1950s and 1960s, once the Democrats became a prominent force in presidential and gubernatorial elections.”
Wisconsin election totals in recent presidential races
- 2000: Gore (D) 47.83% vs. Bush (R) 47.61%
- 2004: Kerry (D) 49.70% vs. Bush (R) 49.32%
- 2016: Trump (R) 47.22% vs. Clinton (D) 46.45%
- 2020: Biden (D) 49.45% vs. Trump (R) 48.82%
- 2024: To be determined
Source: Ballotopedia
Political prognosticators have placed Wisconsin on the 2024 list of eight states that will ultimately decide the outcome of next year’s presidential election. As noted by Doug Sosnik, political consultant for NAR and a former political director for the Clinton Administration, “The strongest predictors of the 2024 outcome have now zeroed in on polling of likely voters in eight states that represent less than 20% of the U.S. population — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”
2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee
Another event that puts the political spotlight on Wisconsin is the 2024 Republican National Convention (RNC), which will be held July 15-18, 2024, in Milwaukee, and planners say the convention will bring 50,000 people to Milwaukee to nominate a ticket to take on the Democrats. Wisconsin’s status as a premier swing state brought the Democratic National Convention (DNC) to Milwaukee in 2020, but the COVID-19 pandemic required the Democrats to move to a virtual convention that year. Back-to-back national conventions in Milwaukee are yet another example of just how important Wisconsin is to both sides of the political divide.