If you're a fan of The Clash, you know the song, "Should I Stay or Should I Go?" And with Gov. Scott Walker's run in the 2016 presidential campaign, the question for Wisconsin's future is: will Walker stay or will he go?
If Gov. Scott Walker secures a spot on the 2016 presidential ticket and wins, he will resign his office, and Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch will assume the office of governor. The $10,000 question for political insiders is this: if Walker fails to earn a spot on the presidential ticket next year, will he finish his current four-year term that expires in January 2019?
At this point, nobody knows what Walker will do if he comes up short with his presidential aspirations. It’s entirely possible that even Scott Walker isn’t sure what he might do under these circumstances.
What we do know is the Wisconsin Constitution provides for an orderly succession of the executive branch of state government. We also know about the track record in Wisconsin and the nation of lieutenant governors who ran for governor in the post-World War II era. Here’s a brief look at what might happen if Walker leaves before his term expires.
What happens if Walker leaves?
According to the Wisconsin Constitution, “upon the governor’s death, resignation or removal from office, the Lieutenant Governor shall become governor for the balance of the unexpired term.” If Walker leaves before his term ends in January 2019, Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch would become governor for the remainder of the current term. Kleefisch was on the ticket with Walker for both the 2010 and 2014 gubernatorial elections as well as the historic June 2012 recall election. Like Walker, Kleefisch has been elected three times in four years.
Potential Kleefisch primary opposition
If Kleefisch decides to run for governor in her own right in 2018, there are several potential opponents who could provide stiff competition if they decide to challenge her in a primary. A partial list of potential opponents includes GOP Congressmen Reid Ribble or Sean Duffy; former attorney general J.B. Van Hollen; former GOP U.S. Senate candidates Mark Neumann and Eric Hovde; and state legislative leaders including Assembly Speaker Robin Vos and Senate majority leader Scott Fitzgerald.
National and Wisconsin success rate of lieutenant governors seeking the governorship
According to data compiled by Governing Magazine, since the early 1990s, the national success rate for “lieutenant governors making gubernatorial bids — 17 wins and 38 losses, for a success rate of just 31 percent.” These numbers do not include lieutenant governors who were elevated to governor upon the death or resignation of their predecessor, which could be the case in Wisconsin.
Since 1945 in Wisconsin, the success rate for lieutenant governors seeking the governorship is mixed. Winners include Oscar Rennebohn (R, 1948); Warren Knowles (R, 1964); and Patrick Lucey (D, 1970). Those who failed include Patrick Lucey (D, 1966); Jack Olson (R, 1970); Martin Schreiber (D, 1978); and Scott McCallum (R, 2002). If history is any guide, the political party that controls the presidency could strongly influence the outcome in the 2018 gubernatorial election.
Who will occupy the White House in 2018?
The 2018 gubernatorial race will be influenced to some degree by the outcome in the 2016 presidential election. More often than not, the party that wins the previous presidential election loses seats in the following midterm — not just congressional seats, but governorships and state legislative seats as well. In fact, the four Wisconsin lieutenant governors who ran for governor and lost — Lucey (1966), Olson (1970), Schreiber (1978) and McCallum (2002) — all lost in midterm elections with their party controlling the White House.
There’s never a dull moment in Wisconsin politics.
Joe Murray is Director of Political and Governmental Affairs for the WRA.
Find out more about Lt. Gov. Kleefisch and the priorities of the Wisconsin executive branch by following her weekly online newsletter at ltgov.wi.gov/newsletters.